Extreme weather to be the 'new-normal' in the future

Monday, March 7, 2016 - 17:00

New research indicates that Ireland will be subject to periods of extreme temperatures, precipitation, and drought on an increasingly regular basis throughout the 21st Century. 

The research, published in the international journal Climate Risk Management, uses more than 150 years of collected data and sophisticated modelling to map and project extreme seasonal conditions on the island of Ireland. The research also reveals that previously anomalous periods of extreme weather have become significantly more regular since the mid-19th century.

The publication of this paper is an output from the ongoing project, ‘Irish Climate Futures: Downscaling for Decision Making,’ led by Dr Conor Murphy of Maynooth University’s Department of Geography and working collaboratively with international colleagues. The project aims to more effectively link climate science to the needs of decision makers who will ultimately be tasked with adapting to climate change. 

This study, which is the first of its kind on the island of Ireland, explored the changing likelihood of seasonal extremes. The team, using data stretching back over 150 years, identified the wettest, stormiest winters and the driest, hottest summers on record and determined how unusual these extremes were in the long-term context. The team then developed a suite of climate model experiments to project and scrutinise patterns of extreme weather over the next 100 years.

The results show that:

  • The likelihood of seasonal extremes has increased significantly since records began. 
  • The summer of 1995 was the driest and warmest on record. Analysis shows that the likelihood of an equally warm summer has increased 56-fold since 1900.  
  • For wet winters, the most extreme on record occurred in 1994/95 (we await figures for this winter!) The likelihood of a similarly wet winter recurring has doubled since 1850.

Looking forward, these trends are likely to increase.

  • Projections show as many as 26 out of the final 30 years of the 21st Century are expected to be warmer than the hottest summer on record – representing an almost 250-fold increase in likelihood since the beginning of our observations.  
  • The modelling also suggests that one in every eight winters will be as wet as the wettest so far expereinced (1994/95).

The ramifications of these changes are not to be taken lightly. An increase in the occurrence of extremely warm summers will have significant consequences for Irish society.  Research has shown, for example, that despite Ireland’s temperate climate, mortality rates in Ireland are effected by temperature. The summer of 1995 saw a notable rise in mortality.  The increasing likelihood of dry summers and wet winters imply a significant challenge for water resource management and agriculture, as such conditions have historically resulted in widespread winter flooding and summer drought.    

 “The impetus behind this research was a desire to combat the ‘psychological distancing’ that is widespread amongst the general public and decision makers. There is an undeniable need for us all to reduce our emissions and plan appropriately for climate change. However, there is a common perception that climate change is temporally, geographically, or socially distant from people’s lives, and this reduces public engagement with the issue,” said author Dr Tom Matthews, previously of Maynooth and now at Liverpool John Moores University

“By contextualising climate change relative to extreme weather that people have observed in their own lifetimes, it is our hope that this research will provide a more tangible reference point for a wide range of audiences,” said Dr Murphy.

Maynooth University President Philip Nolan welcomed the findings: “The research carried out by Dr Conor Murphy and his colleagues is both academically significant and socially important. Climate change is the most pressing problem facing humanity as a whole, and Maynooth University academics and scientists have consistently distinguished themselves in their efforts to tackle it. Whether it is producing important research such as this or collaborating with industry to develop future energy technologies, Maynooth University researchers are at the frontlines of the battle against climate change.”

The full paper can be found here.