Dr Niamh Cahill

    Mathematics and Statistics, Hamilton Institute, ICARUS

    Lecturer / Assistant Professor

    Logic House
    223
    (01) 708 6544

    Biography

    I am an applied statistician with interests in developing statistical models for the analysis of time dependent, compositional and/or spatial data. One aspect of my research focuses on the development of statistical models to assess and interpret population-level health trends, specifically family planning indicators, on a national and sub-national level. As well as this I work on the statistical analysis of indicators of climate change, specifically sea-level change.

    I use a Bayesian approach to statistical modeling, which is suitable for developing complex hierarchical models, accounts of uncertainties related to model parameters, incorporates prior knowledge, and shares information across data populations. My research covers a range of statistical disciplines including: stochastic processes; time series analysis; computation and simulation; and multivariate analysis.

    Research Interests



    Research Projects

      Project Role Funding Body / Program Description Start Date End Date Award (€)
    Predicting Sea Levels and Sea Level Extremes for Ireland PI Science Foundation Ireland / Frontiers for the Future PROJECT Rising seas increase the vulnerability of cities and associated infrastructure that line the coastline of Ireland because of higher extreme sea levels (and flooding), coastal erosion, salinization of surface and ground waters, and degradation of coastal habitats. Armed with statistical knowledge of how sea levels have been changing in the 20th and 21st century, future links between mean sea-level and sea level extremes due to storm surges and wave climate can be established, which are vital to inform decision making related to flood risks. For this project, we have identified three main components necessary for providing estimates of current and future sea levels and sea level extremes around Ireland: (1) Establish links between sea-levels and climate using instrumental records of Irish sea-level changes; (2) Estimate extreme sea-level probabilities at high spatial resolution for select locations along the Irish coastline considering influences of sea-level rise, storm surges and waves; (3) Combine outputs from (1) and (2) to provide projections of extreme sea levels and corresponding return periods under different climate scenarios. Outputs will contribute to a stakeholder-focused, user-friendly web-application, interactive maps, R software and databases which respond to Ireland’s need for future sea-level and extreme sea-level projections and their interpretation. 01-DEC-21 30-NOV-24 258529
    Computational tools for medium-term impact and recovery forecasting from COVID-19 Co-PI / 03-JUN-20 02-DEC-20 90071
    A4: Aigéin, Aeráid, agus Athrú Atlantaigh (Oceans, Climate, and Atlantic Change) Co-PI Marine Institute (Ireland) / 01-DEC-18

    Conference Contributions

      Year Publication
    2021 PAA Annual Meeting.
    Niamh Cahill (2021) PAA Annual Meeting. [Other], PAA session 501-1: Bayesian Demography II, Online [Details]
    2021 Meeting of the Irish Mathematical Society.
    Niamh Cahill (2021) Meeting of the Irish Mathematical Society. [Invited Oral Presentation], A BAYESIAN STATISTICAL MODEL FOR RECONSTRUCTING AND ANALYSING FORMER SEA LEVELS, Online [Details]
    2019 Conference of Applied Statistics in Ireland.
    Niamh Cahill, Michelle Weinberger, Leontine Alkema (2019) Conference of Applied Statistics in Ireland. [Oral Presentation], Measuring progress towards having 75% of the demand for contraception satisfied by 2030, Louth [Details]
    2019 INQUA Conference.
    Niamh Cahill, Andrew Parnell, Michael Salter-Townshend (2019) INQUA Conference. [Chaired Session], Bayesian Statistical Analysis Methods for Paleoclimate Data, Dublin, Ireland [Details]
    2019 Quaternary Research Association Annual Meeting.
    Niamh Cahill (2019) Quaternary Research Association Annual Meeting. [Invited Oral Presentation], A BAYESIAN STATISTICAL MODEL FOR RECONSTRUCTING AND ANALYSING FORMER SEA LEVELS, Chester, U.K [Details]
    2018 Conference of Applied Statistics Ireland.
    Niamh Cahill (2018) Conference of Applied Statistics Ireland. [Oral Presentation], Trends in Modern Contraceptive Prevalence, Unmet Need for and Demand Satis ed with Modern methods in the Focus Countries of the Family Planning 2020 Initiative, Galway, Ireland [Details]
    2017 Population Association of America Annual Meeting.
    Niamh Cahill (2017) Population Association of America Annual Meeting. [Poster Presentation], A Probabilistic Assessment of Trends in Modern Contraceptive Prevalence, Unmet Need for and Demand Satis ed with Modern methods in the Countries of the FP2020 initiative, Chicago, USA [Details]
    2016 Paleo Sea Level Annual Meeting.
    Niamh Cahill (2016) Paleo Sea Level Annual Meeting. [Invited Oral Presentation], Accounting for Uncertainty in the Analysis of Former Sea Levels Reconstructions and Rates of Change, Oregon, USA [Details]

    Peer Reviewed Journals

      Year Publication
    2021 'Using family planning service statistics to inform model-based estimates of modern contraceptive prevalence'
    Cahill N.;Sonneveldt E.;Emmart P.;Williamson J.;Mbu R.;Yetgang A.B.F.;Dambula I.;Azambuja G.;Govo A.A.M.;Joshi B.;Felix S.;Makashaka C.;Ndaruhutse V.;Serucaca J.;Madzima B.;Muzavazi B.;Alkema L. (2021) 'Using family planning service statistics to inform model-based estimates of modern contraceptive prevalence'. PLoS ONE, 16 (10 October) [DOI] [Details]
    2021 'A palaeoclimate proxy database for water security planning in Queensland Australia'
    Croke J.;Vítkovský J.;Hughes K.;Campbell M.;Amirnezhad-Mozhdehi S.;Parnell A.;Cahill N.;Dalla Pozza R. (2021) 'A palaeoclimate proxy database for water security planning in Queensland Australia'. Scientific Data, 8 (1) [DOI] [Details]
    2021 'Fpemlocal: Estimating family planning indicators in R for a single population of interest'
    Alkema L.;Guranich G.;Cahill N. (2021) 'Fpemlocal: Estimating family planning indicators in R for a single population of interest'. Gates Open Research, 5 [DOI] [Details]
    2021 'Common Era sea-level budgets along the U.S. Atlantic coast'
    Walker J.S.;Kopp R.E.;Shaw T.A.;Cahill N.;Khan N.S.;Barber D.C.;Ashe E.L.;Brain M.J.;Clear J.L.;Corbett D.R.;Horton B.P. (2021) 'Common Era sea-level budgets along the U.S. Atlantic coast'. Nature Communications, 12 (1) [DOI] [Details]
    2021 'Timing and amount of southern Cascadia earthquake subsidence over the past 1700 years at northern Humboldt Bay, California, USA'
    Padgett J.S.;Engelhart S.E.;Kelsey H.M.;Witter R.C.;Cahill N.;Hemphill-Haley E. (2021) 'Timing and amount of southern Cascadia earthquake subsidence over the past 1700 years at northern Humboldt Bay, California, USA'. Geological Society of America Bulletin, 133 (9-10):2137-2156 [DOI] [Details]
    2021 'Current Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation weakest in last millennium'
    Caesar, L;McCarthy, GD;Thornalley, DJR;Cahill, N;Rahmstorf, S (2021) 'Current Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation weakest in last millennium'. Nature Geoscience, [DOI] [Details]
    2021 'Minimal stratigraphic evidence for coseismic coastal subsidence during 2000 yr of megathrust earthquakes at the central Cascadia subduction zone'
    Nelson, AR;Hawkes, AD;Sawai, Y;Horton, B;Witter, RC;Bradley, LA;Cahill, N (2021) 'Minimal stratigraphic evidence for coseismic coastal subsidence during 2000 yr of megathrust earthquakes at the central Cascadia subduction zone'. Geosphere, 17 :171-200 [DOI] [full-text] [Details]
    2020 'Incorporating temporal and spatial variability of salt-marsh foraminifera into sea-level reconstructions'
    Walker J.S.;Cahill N.;Khan N.S.;Shaw T.A.;Barber D.;Miller K.G.;Kopp R.E.;Horton B.P. (2020) 'Incorporating temporal and spatial variability of salt-marsh foraminifera into sea-level reconstructions'. Marine Geology, 429 [DOI] [full-text] [Details]
    2020 'Identifying the greatest earthquakes of the past 2000 years at the Nehalem river Estuary, northern Oregon coast, USA'
    Nelson A.;Hawkes A.;Sawai Y.;Engelhart S.;Witter R.;Grant-Walter W.;Bradley L.;Dura T.;Cahill N.;Horton B. (2020) 'Identifying the greatest earthquakes of the past 2000 years at the Nehalem river Estuary, northern Oregon coast, USA'. Open Quaternary, 6 (1) [DOI] [full-text] [Details]
    2020 'A 2,000-year Bayesian NAO reconstruction from the Iberian Peninsula'
    Hernández A.;Sánchez-López G.;Pla-Rabes S.;Comas-Bru L.;Parnell A.;Cahill N.;Geyer A.;Trigo R.M.;Giralt S. (2020) 'A 2,000-year Bayesian NAO reconstruction from the Iberian Peninsula'. Scientific Reports, 10 (1) [DOI] [full-text] [Details]
    2020 'Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey'
    Horton, BP;Khan, NS;Cahill, N;Lee, JSH;Shaw, TA;Garner, AJ;Kemp, AC;Engelhart, SE;Rahmstorf, S (2020) 'Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey'. Npj Climate And Atmospheric Science, 3 [DOI] [full-text] [Details]
    2020 'ENOUGH IS ENOUGH, OR MORE IS MORE? TESTING THE INFLUENCE OF FORAMINIFERAL COUNT SIZE ON RECONSTRUCTIONS OF PALEO-MARSH ELEVATION'
    Kemp, AC;Wright, AJ;Cahill, N (2020) 'ENOUGH IS ENOUGH, OR MORE IS MORE? TESTING THE INFLUENCE OF FORAMINIFERAL COUNT SIZE ON RECONSTRUCTIONS OF PALEO-MARSH ELEVATION'. Journal of Foraminiferal Research, 50 :266-278 [Details]
    2020 'What increase in modern contraceptive use is needed in FP2020 countries to reach 75% demand satisfied by 2030? An assessment using the Accelerated Transition Method and Family Planning Estimation Model'
    Cahill N;Weinberger M;Alkema L; (2020) 'What increase in modern contraceptive use is needed in FP2020 countries to reach 75% demand satisfied by 2030? An assessment using the Accelerated Transition Method and Family Planning Estimation Model'. Gates Open Research, 4 [DOI] [full-text] [Details]
    2019 'Salt marsh ecosystem restructuring enhances elevation resilience and carbon storage during accelerating relative sea-level rise'
    Gonneea M.E.;Maio C.V.;Kroeger K.D.;Hawkes A.D.;Mora J.;Sullivan R.;Madsen S.;Buzard R.M.;Cahill N.;Donnelly J.P. (2019) 'Salt marsh ecosystem restructuring enhances elevation resilience and carbon storage during accelerating relative sea-level rise'. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 217 :56-68 [DOI] [full-text] [Details]
    2019 'iceTEA: Tools for plotting and analysing cosmogenic-nuclide surface-exposure data from former ice margins'
    Jones R.;Small D.;Cahill N.;Bentley M.;Whitehouse P. (2019) 'iceTEA: Tools for plotting and analysing cosmogenic-nuclide surface-exposure data from former ice margins'. Quaternary Geochronology, 51 :72-86 [DOI] [full-text] [Details]
    2019 'Can we detect centennial sea-level variations over the last three thousand years in Israeli archaeological records?'
    Dean S.;Horton B.;Evelpidou N.;Cahill N.;Spada G.;Sivan D. (2019) 'Can we detect centennial sea-level variations over the last three thousand years in Israeli archaeological records?'. QUATERNARY SCIENCE REVIEWS, 210 :125-135 [DOI] [full-text] [Details]
    2019 'Statistical modeling of rates and trends in Holocene relative sea level'
    Ashe E.;Cahill N.;Hay C.;Khan N.;Kemp A.;Engelhart S.;Horton B.;Parnell A.;Kopp R. (2019) 'Statistical modeling of rates and trends in Holocene relative sea level'. QUATERNARY SCIENCE REVIEWS, 204 :58-77 [DOI] [full-text] [Details]
    2018 'Tectonic influences on late Holocene relative sea levels from the central-eastern Adriatic coast of Croatia'
    Shaw T.;Plater A.;Kirby J.;Roy K.;Holgate S.;Tutman P.;Cahill N.;Horton B. (2018) 'Tectonic influences on late Holocene relative sea levels from the central-eastern Adriatic coast of Croatia'. QUATERNARY SCIENCE REVIEWS, 200 :262-275 [DOI] [full-text] [Details]
    2018 'Modern contraceptive use, unmet need, and demand satisfied among women of reproductive age who are married or in a union in the focus countries of the Family Planning 2020 initiative: a systematic analysis using the Family Planning Estimation Tool'
    Cahill N.;Sonneveldt E.;Stover J.;Weinberger M.;Williamson J.;Wei C.;Brown W.;Alkema L. (2018) 'Modern contraceptive use, unmet need, and demand satisfied among women of reproductive age who are married or in a union in the focus countries of the Family Planning 2020 initiative: a systematic analysis using the Family Planning Estimation Tool'. Lancet, 391 (10123):870-882 [DOI] [full-text] [Details]
    2018 'Revising estimates of spatially variable subsidence during the A.D. 1700 cascadia earthquake using a bayesian foraminiferal transfer function'
    Kemp A.;Cahill N.;Engelhart S.;Hawkes A.;Wang K. (2018) 'Revising estimates of spatially variable subsidence during the A.D. 1700 cascadia earthquake using a bayesian foraminiferal transfer function'. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 108 (2):654-673 [DOI] [Details]
    2018 'Relative sea-level change in Newfoundland, Canada during the past ∼3000 years'
    Kemp A.;Wright A.;Edwards R.;Barnett R.;Brain M.;Kopp R.;Cahill N.;Horton B.;Charman D.;Hawkes A.;Hill T.;van de Plassche O. (2018) 'Relative sea-level change in Newfoundland, Canada during the past ∼3000 years'. QUATERNARY SCIENCE REVIEWS, 201 :89-110 [DOI] [full-text] [Details]
    2018 'Predicting marsh vulnerability to sea-level rise using Holocene relative sea-level data'
    Horton BP;Shennan I;Bradley SL;Cahill N;Kirwan M;Kopp RE;Shaw TA; (2018) 'Predicting marsh vulnerability to sea-level rise using Holocene relative sea-level data'. Nature Communications, 9 (1) [DOI] [full-text] [Details]
    2018 'No “slowdown” in the story of global warming'
    Cahill N. (2018) 'No “slowdown” in the story of global warming'. Significance, 15 (1):24-27 [DOI] [full-text] [Details]
    2017 'Exploring mechanisms of compaction in salt-marsh sediments using Common Era relative sea-level reconstructions'
    Brain, MJ;Kemp, AC;Hawkes, AD;Engelhart, SE;Vane, CH;Cahill, N;Hill, TD;Donnelly, JP;Horton, BP (2017) 'Exploring mechanisms of compaction in salt-marsh sediments using Common Era relative sea-level reconstructions'. QUATERNARY SCIENCE REVIEWS, 167 :96-111 [DOI] [full-text] [Details]
    2017 'Levels and trends in contraceptive prevalence, unmet need, and demand for family planning for 29 states and union territories in India: a modelling study using the Family Planning Estimation Tool'
    New J.;Cahill N.;Stover J.;Gupta Y.;Alkema L. (2017) 'Levels and trends in contraceptive prevalence, unmet need, and demand for family planning for 29 states and union territories in India: a modelling study using the Family Planning Estimation Tool'. The Lancet Global Health, 5 (3):e350-e358 [DOI] [full-text] [Details]
    2017 'Reconstructing Common Era relative sea-level change on the Gulf Coast of Florida'
    Gerlach M.;Engelhart S.;Kemp A.;Moyer R.;Smoak J.;Bernhardt C.;Cahill N. (2017) 'Reconstructing Common Era relative sea-level change on the Gulf Coast of Florida'. Marine Geology, 390 :254-269 [DOI] [full-text] [Details]
    2017 'Global temperature evolution: Recent trends and some pitfalls'
    Rahmstorf S.;Foster G.;Cahill N. (2017) 'Global temperature evolution: Recent trends and some pitfalls'. Environmental Research Letters, 12 (5) [DOI] [full-text] [Details]
    2017 'Extended late Holocene relative sea-level histories for North Carolina, USA'
    Kemp A.;Kegel J.;Culver S.;Barber D.;Mallinson D.;Leorri E.;Bernhardt C.;Cahill N.;Riggs S.;Woodson A.;Mulligan R.;Horton B. (2017) 'Extended late Holocene relative sea-level histories for North Carolina, USA'. QUATERNARY SCIENCE REVIEWS, 160 :13-30 [DOI] [full-text] [Details]
    2017 'Relative sea-level trends in New York City during the past 1500 years'
    Kemp A.;Hill T.;Vane C.;Cahill N.;Orton P.;Talke S.;Parnell A.;Sanborn K.;Hartig E. (2017) 'Relative sea-level trends in New York City during the past 1500 years'. Holocene, 27 (8):1169-1186 [DOI] [full-text] [Details]
    2016 'Relative sea-level change in northeastern Florida (USA) during the last ~8.0 ka'
    Hawkes A.;Kemp A.;Donnelly J.;Horton B.;Peltier W.;Cahill N.;Hill D.;Ashe E.;Alexander C. (2016) 'Relative sea-level change in northeastern Florida (USA) during the last ~8.0 ka'. QUATERNARY SCIENCE REVIEWS, 142 :90-101 [DOI] [full-text] [Details]
    2016 'A Bayesian hierarchical model for reconstructing relative sea level: From raw data to rates of change'
    Cahill N.;Kemp A.;Horton B.;Parnell A. (2016) 'A Bayesian hierarchical model for reconstructing relative sea level: From raw data to rates of change'. Climate of the Past, 12 (2):525-542 [DOI] [full-text] [Details]
    2015 'Quantifying the contribution of sediment compaction to late Holocene salt-marsh sea-level reconstructions, North Carolina, USA'
    Brain, MJ;Kemp, AC;Horton, BP;Culver, SJ;Parnell, AC;Cahill, N (2015) 'Quantifying the contribution of sediment compaction to late Holocene salt-marsh sea-level reconstructions, North Carolina, USA'. Quaternary Research, 83 :41-51 [DOI] [full-text] [Details]
    2015 'Modeling sea-level change using errors-in-variables integrated gaussian processes'
    Cahill N.;Kemp A.;Horton B.;Parnell A. (2015) 'Modeling sea-level change using errors-in-variables integrated gaussian processes'. Annals of Applied Statistics, 9 (2):547-571 [DOI] [full-text] [Details]
    2015 'Change points of global temperature'
    Cahill N.;Rahmstorf S.;Parnell A. (2015) 'Change points of global temperature'. Environmental Research Letters, 10 (8) [DOI] [full-text] [Details]
    2015 'Accommodation space, relative sea level, and the archiving of paleo-earthquakes along subduction zones'
    Kelsey H.;Engelhart S.;Pilarczyk J.;Horton B.;Rubin C.;Daryono M.;Ismail N.;Hawkes A.;Bernhardt C.;Cahill N. (2015) 'Accommodation space, relative sea level, and the archiving of paleo-earthquakes along subduction zones'. Journal of Geology, 43 (8):675-678 [DOI] [full-text] [Details]
    2015 'Relative sea-level change in Connecticut (USA) during the last 2200 yrs'
    Kemp A.;Hawkes A.;Donnelly J.;Vane C.;Horton B.;Hill T.;Anisfeld S.;Parnell A.;Cahill N. (2015) 'Relative sea-level change in Connecticut (USA) during the last 2200 yrs'. Earth and Planetary Sciences Letters, 428 :217-229 [DOI] [full-text] [Details]
    2014 'Contrasting records of sea-level change in the eastern and western North Atlantic during the last 300 years'
    Long A.;Barlow N.;Gehrels W.;Saher M.;Woodworth P.;Scaife R.;Brain M.;Cahill N. (2014) 'Contrasting records of sea-level change in the eastern and western North Atlantic during the last 300 years'. Earth and Planetary Sciences Letters, 388 :110-122 [DOI] [full-text] [Details]
    2014 'Late Holocene sea- and land-level change on the U.S. southeastern Atlantic coast'
    Kemp A.;Bernhardt C.;Horton B.;Kopp R.;Vane C.;Peltier W.;Hawkes A.;Donnelly J.;Parnell A.;Cahill N. (2014) 'Late Holocene sea- and land-level change on the U.S. southeastern Atlantic coast'. Marine Geology, 357 :90-100 [DOI] [full-text] [Details]
    2013 'Sea-level change during the last 2500 years in New Jersey, USA'
    Kemp A.;Horton B.;Vane C.;Bernhardt C.;Corbett D.;Engelhart S.;Anisfeld S.;Parnell A.;Cahill N. (2013) 'Sea-level change during the last 2500 years in New Jersey, USA'. QUATERNARY SCIENCE REVIEWS, 81 :90-104 [DOI] [full-text] [Details]

    Committees

      Committee Function From / To
    University Research Committee Member 2020 /
    Department of Mathematics and Statistics PR Committee Member 2019 /
    Y-ISA Outreach Officer 2021 /

    Employment

      Employer Position From / To
    University College Dublin Lecturer 01-JAN-18 /
    UMASS Amherst Post Doctoral Research Associate 01-JAN-16 / 31-AUG-17

    Education

      Year Institution Qualification Subject
    2010 Maynooth University BSc Chemistry and Statistics
    2015 University College Dublin PhD Statistics
    2011 University College Dublin MSc Statistics

    Teaching Interests

    DS152 Introduction to Data Science (2), Academic Year 2021/22 ‑ present

    ST405 Bayesian Data Analysis, Academic Year 2021/22 ‑ present

    ST201 Data Analysis, Academic Year 2020/21 ‑ present

    ST466 Advanced Statistical Modelling, Academic Year 2019/20 & 2020/21

    DS151 Introduction to Data Science (1),  Academic Year 2019/20 & 2020/21


    Internal Collaborators

      Name Institute Country
    Andrew Parnell Hamilton Institute IRELAND

    External Collaborators

      Name Role / Description Country
    Leontine Alkema U.S.A.
    Benjamin Horton SINGAPORE
    Andrew Kemp U.S.A.