HydroPredcit: Ensemble Riverflow Scenarios for Climate Change Adaptation
HydroPredict seeks to build capacity for robust adaptation in the water sector in Ireland – a sector that is highly sensitive to changes in climate. In meeting these challenges novel approaches to the provision of climate projections for assisting decision making are required. Such approaches need to be decision-centric, relevant and tailored to the needs of end users while dealing transparently and efficiently with the challenge of uncertainty so that adaptation decisions can be tested for robustness to the range of projected changes. This work will develop a new generation of hydrological projections under climate change and assess, for the first time, the risk posed by future drought to Irish water resources. The analysis will be based on the full set of available global and regional climate models available through the CMIP5 and CORDEX ensembles. Full assessment of the role of hydrological modelling uncertainty will also be made. The input of key stakeholders in identifying critical flow and drought indicators, relevant to their decision making needs will ensure relevance of outputs across the water sector.
The project seeks to:
- Develop ensembles of hydrological simulations for Irish catchments for use in the water sector for climate change adaptation planning
- Incorporate key uncertainties including: global climate models, natural climate variability, downscaling and hydrological model uncertainties.
- Provide guidance on ranges of change likely for key hydrological indicators from across the full flow regime that are of use to water managers.
- Assess the impact of climate change on meteorological and hydrological drought for the island of Ireland and to identify drought hotspots.
- Develop an easy to use on-line data dashboard for data visualization and download to ensure scientific insights are linked to effective decision making for adaptation.
- Integrate existing research (e.g. Irish Hydrometric Reference Network and historical drought series) through the online dashboard.
These objectives will be best met through structuring the research as a discrete, yet highly interlinked series of four Work Packages (WPs), enabling the realisation of key deliverables:
WP1 – Project Management, Training and Communication
WP2 – Future Hydrological Projections
WP3 – Assessment of future drought risk
WP4 – Data Portal and Dissemination
The project is led by Dr. Conor Murphy and funded by the Environmental Protection Agency of Ireland 2018-CCRP-MS.51. Commencing in April 2019, the project will run for three years. Updates on progress and key outputs will be provided in updates.
